Offering the World Order
Of Nuclear Weapons and Global Operating Systems
I wanted to connect the second episode of the Orbis podcast #ShiftingGround — our conversation with Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld (ret.)—with Brad Roberts’ new essay for Orbis, the “Nuclear Order and Global Disorder."
In his discussions with Larry Rubin and myself, the Admiral presented his concept of the “global operating system” (GOS). This, of course, drew on his contribution to the first issue of the relaunched Orbis. A GOS comprises those “systems of laws, rules, standards, agreements, and customs established by a lead entity that enable nations to cooperatively achieve relative stability and prosperity.”
A GOS can be strained or even brought to the brink of “catastrophic failure” due, among other tings, to “geopolitical cycles, political polarization, and the overextension of the prevailing power.” As the GOS is stressed, we run the risk that “the rule of power begins to triumph over the rule of law.” If policymakers, therefore, cannot “counter the factors that tend to end these cycles”:
“Failure to do so could result in a catastrophe far worse than previous cycle-ending events due to the existence of weapons of mass destruction.”
This brings us to Brad Roberts’ essay. He shares a similar assessment to the Admiral’s:
“The international nuclear order is in peril, largely due to erosion of the global political order. Relations among the major powers are increasingly adversarial, international norms are increasingly contested, the US leadership role is increasingly uncertain, and alignments and political preferences are reforming around new expectations.”
If the nuclear part of the GOS falters, he worries we could end up with a “chaotic” result: “a world of many nuclear uncertainties and heightened nuclear dangers, amidst a scramble to not be left behind in the rush for a nuclear deterrent for life in the nuclear jungle.”
Both do believe that we have not passed a point of no return, and that policymakers can find solutions that will reboot the relevant operating systems and help us to avoid a mid-21st century global dynamic defined by chaos and increased risks.